April 5, 2019

I started my career in global macro investing in 2008. As you can imagine, it was a complete baptism of fire. Storied institutions like Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were failing every day, with many others coming close to the brink. The next few years ha...

November 11, 2016

At long last, the US elections are over. Like many others, I was surprised by the outcome, which was a sharp reminder that we live in an unpredictable world, where it is often unclear if a low-probability event occurred, or whether we simply miscalculated the odds. Her...

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