June 10, 2017

I've been thinking over the past few weeks about two seemingly unrelated phenomena. First, the fact that humanity has been extraordinarily lucky to enjoy 12,000 years of climate stability. This stability provided the backdrop for increasingly complex civilizations and...

May 7, 2017

There's an old trading aphorism that markets climb a wall of worry. Over the past 8 years, that wall has been even higher than usual. Every downward move triggered PTSD for investors who experienced the sickening plunge in 2008-09. And yet we find ourselves in 2017 wit...

November 11, 2016

At long last, the US elections are over. Like many others, I was surprised by the outcome, which was a sharp reminder that we live in an unpredictable world, where it is often unclear if a low-probability event occurred, or whether we simply miscalculated the odds. Her...

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